The Leaders Debate - Part 2

Dead heat, three ways. No real victor in this one. Sky did a ok job, watched it on CNN, I found the after debate better on there then Sky, got more internatanel reaction from the US, Afganerstan and Europe. Still fell that Cleggs on the right track about winding up Trident. I can't see the point of paying that amount of money on a system most of the world are trying to cut back. If a theat comes, then it will be from one country to the reast of the world, working with other countrys to protext peace is the way to go, not pointing WMDs at people, witch is what they are.

Much better than last week. Both Cameron and Brown did a much better job. Clegg doesn't find it so easy once he is being scrutinised for a change.

What a difference a week makes. The Lib Dem surge of the first debate is starting to subside (they're back in third place in this morning's tracker poll) and this debate I expect will not have any effect on the national contest.

From my point of veiw, its a case of so far so good.
Fingers crossed for the crucial final debate next week.

Before I saw the polls I thought that Brown was the most improved, Cameron also did better and Clegg held his own. Overall I thought that it was a tie between Clegg/Cameron but Brown wasn't out of it.

Now I've seen the polls (and taking into account margin of error) I just think that it's too close to call. That probably means Labour in 3rd in terms of the vote but 1st with the no of seats and a bit of a "do" to sort it all out on the 7th.

I think your initial reaction was right George. I thought much the same thing.

I do think you misunderstand the electoral battleground however if you are only going by the uniform national swing that translates polls into seats.

In reality, based on the current polls the Tories would more than likely end up with more seats than Labour if Labour were to be in third in terms of votes cast.
I've personally predicted results for all 650 constituencies, and I can't get any circumstances in which Labour end up as the largest party. At best I get 300 Tory, 260 Labour, 50 Lib Dem and at worst I get 270 Tory, 240 Labour, 95 Lib Dem.

It is also a fact that the majority of the Lib Dems 'surge' has been amongst the young and people who usually abstein. These groups will NOT turn out in large numbers come polling day. The Lib Dems will end up somewhere in the mid 20s with Labour taking around 30% and the Tories around 36-37%.

So I say, beware of seat predictions based on polls. These are all based on the idea that EVERY seat in the land goes precisely the same way. In the real world they don't. Polls are just a pointer, but they cannot give you an accurate result.

Brown Labour's Asquith?

I feel as do many people that we are moving into new political epoch and it led me to think of the similarities and differences between now and the last time we saw a seismic shift in politics when Labour replaced the Liberals as the party of the left.

But first by way of explanation a little on the career of Herbert Asquith. From non conformist stock Asquith was marked down as a politician of promise in the 1890s. The Liberal landslide of 1906 saw Asquith become the Chancellor of the Exchequer in a reforming government. A government that ushered in the beginnings of a welfare state. In 1908 Asquith became Prime Minister, the following years saw the introduction of the Old Age Pension as well as a titanic battle over parliamentary reform against a Tory dominated House of Lords.

In 1914 and as everyone knows the First World War breaks out. As the carnage develops tensions between Asquith and the charismatic Lloyd George eventually see Asquith replaced by LG in December 1916.

It is the period after the War that is the most interesting. The early 1920s sees economic problems a resurgent Tory Party and the rise of Labour. Asquith and Lloyd George eventually sink their differences but it is the election of 1923 which matches the present political climate. The election in December sees the Tories under 0n 285, Asquiths Liberals on 158 and the Labour party under Ramsay McDonald on 191.

After the election the parties debate who should form the Government the previous PM the Tory Baldwin realsises that he cannot form a government Asquith is consulted by the King's Private Secretary and suggests that this is an ideal time to try a Labour Government. Asquith feels closest to Labour on the issue of Free Trade. The Tories are protectionist.

Macdonald becomes PM in January 24 and the Liberals never sniff the prospect of serious power for many years afterwards.

The similarities between Brown and Asquith. Both non conformists, both Chancellors of the Exchequer, both have Fife constituencies, both have deadly rivals.

I still think Nick Clegg was the best of the three, or at least the least bad. But of the other two David Cameron was the least bad.

I liked most but not all of Nick Clegg's points but they needed to go a bit further for me. Nuclear weapons for example, don't want them at all. After all you'd have to be, using a Clegg phrase, a 'nutter' to want to let one off. Think volcanic ash is bad, Chernobyl was worse, Hiroshima and Nagasaki... let's just not go there. So let's not waste money we don't have on such awful things - at all.

Europe - that's where David Cameron did better than Nick Clegg. Nick just wanted a simplistic "in or out" referendum. David's was better as his suggestion was a referendum on any specific major change that may crop up, that seems more detailed and relevant to me. And Gordon Brown - infuriating. He wouldn't give us any say at all. Worse of all, if I remember rightly, was a phrase something like what the people want is for us to take the 'right decisions'. WRONG Gordon, we want to have a say, not you. This is why I can't stand labour anymore, they've had power too long and are not too different from the tories when they'd had power that long, arrogant, they insist on speaking for us, say they're listening but don't. Democracy is dead under them. Well they won't be speaking for us for too much longer - because there's just enough democracy left to boot them out.

It's odd, I changed from a consistent labour voter to libdem voter last general election, not because I'd changed much I don't think, but because labour had changed and the libdems had changed a little too. This time the libdems are actually a bit weaker on policy than at last general election but I'm much more towards them and away from labour because labour has got so much worse. If Zulfiqar Ali and his limp liberals hadn't been such prats on the council I may even have been voting for him. But there you go, none of those three parties appeal this time.

Shaun I don't think your assumption that the young won't turn out to vote is necessarily true. I suspect more of them will and the TV debates may have helped generate interest. I agree that polls aren't accurate -after all there are loads of us who never get asked.

Meeting at Westminster Hall tonight on Citizen London. I thought that Gordon Brown had real passion tonight on the issue of the low paid. Its a pity that he is discovering fire in his belly so late. And a pity that he did not take heed of poverty in work before. As some quoted Shakespeare earlier I will equally oblige

I have ta'en too little care of this
Take physic pomp
And feel what wretches feel

KING LEAR